Many people do not realize that America is not only entering a new year, but within the next month we will also be entering a new economic era. In early February, Janet Yellen is set to leave the Federal Reserve and be replaced by the new Fed chair nominee, Jerome Powell. Now, to be clear, the Fed chair along with the bank governors do not set central bank policy. Policy for most central banks around the world is dictated in Switzerland by the Bank for International Settlements. Fed chairmen like Janet Yellen are mere mascots implementing policy initiatives as ordered. This is why we are now seeing supposedly separate central banking institutions around the world acting in unison, first with stimulus, then with fiscal tightening.
However, it is important to note that each new Fed chair does tend to signal a new shift in action for the central bank. For example, Alan Greenspan oversaw the low interest rate easy money phase of the Fed, which created the conditions for the derivatives and credit bubble and subsequent crash in 2008. Ben Bernanke oversaw the stimulus and bailout phase, flooding the markets with massive amounts of fiat and engineering an even larger bubble in stocks, bonds and just about every other asset except perhaps some select commodities. Janet Yellen managed the tapering phase, in which stimulus has been carefully and systematically diminished while still maintaining delusional stock market euphoria.
Now comes the era of Jerome Powell, who will oversee the last stages of fiscal tightening, the reduction of the Fed balance sheet, faster rate increases and the final implosion of the 'everything' bubble.
As I warned before Trump won the election in 2016, a Trump presidency would inevitably be followed by economic crisis, and this would be facilitated by the Federal Reserve pulling the plug on fiat life support measures which kept the illusion of recovery going for the past several years. It is important to note that the mainstream media is consistently referring to Jerome Powell as "Trump's candidate" for the Fed, or "Trump's pick" (as if the president really has much of a choice in the roster of candidates for the Fed chair). The public is being subtly conditioned to view Powell as if he is an extension of the Trump administration.
This could not be further from the truth. Powell and the Fed are autonomous from government. As Alan Greenspan openly admitted years ago, the Fed does not answer to the government and can act independently without oversight. So, why is the media insisting on misrepresenting Powell as some kind of Trump agent? Because Trump, and by extension all the conservatives that support him, are meant to take the blame when the 'everything' bubble vaporizes our financial structure. Jerome Powell is "Trump's guy" at the Fed; so any actions Powell takes to crush the recovery narrative will also be blamed on the Trump administration.
But, is it a certainty that Powell will put the final nail in the coffin of "economic recovery?" Yes. Last Friday the Fed finally released the transcripts of its monetary policy meetings in 2012, and in those transcripts are some interesting admissions from Powell himself. After reading these transcripts I am fully convinced that Powell is the man who will stand as the figurehead of the central bank during the final phase of U.S. decline.
Here are some of the most astonishing quotes by Powell from those transcripts along with my commentary. These quotes are yet another piece of evidence that vindicates my position on the Fed as an economic saboteur and my position on the historic market bubble the bank has created:
Powell: "I have concerns about more purchases. As others have pointed out, the dealer community is now assuming close to a $4 trillion balance sheet and purchases through the first quarter of 2014. I admit that is a much stronger reaction than I anticipated, and I am uncomfortable with it for a couple of reasons.
First, the question, why stop at $4 trillion? The market in most cases will cheer us for doing more. It will never be enough for the market. Our models will always tell us that we are helping the economy, and I will probably always feel that those benefits are overestimated. And we will be able to tell ourselves that market function is not impaired and that inflation expectations are under control. What is to stop us, other than much faster economic growth, which it is probably not in our power to produce?"
Assessment: By all indications the Fed did do more, MUCH more. Including QE3, various stimulus packages and incessantly low interest rates for years, the Fed has essentially stepped in every time stock markets in particular were about to crash back to their natural state of decline. Powell is being rather honest in his estimation here that these stopgaps are in fact temporary and that the Fed cannot produce true economic growth to support the market optimism they have created through their interventions. He is stating openly that markets will only remain optimistic so long as they are assured that the Fed will continue to intervene.
This is probably why it took almost six years before these transcripts were released.
Powell: "When it is time for us to sell, or even to stop buying, the response could be quite strong; there is every reason to expect a strong response. So there are a couple of ways to look at it. It is about $1.2 trillion in sales; you take 60 months, you get about $20 billion a month. That is a very doable thing, it sounds like, in a market where the norm by the middle of next year is $80 billion a month. Another way to look at it, though, is that it's not so much the sale, the duration; it's also unloading our short volatility position."
Assessment: And here we have Powell's shocking admission, clarifying his previous point — the "strong response" that Powell is referring to is a market reversal, or bubble implosion. He even admits the existence of the Fed's "short position on volatility." This explains the strange behavior of the VIX index, which has plunged to record lows as "someone" continually shorts VIX stocks in order to interfere with any decline in markets.
This interference in the VIX has conjured an aberration, a market calm and investor confidence that is artificial. Such overconfidence, when optimism turns into mania, has happened before. In fact, the end of the Greenspan era was awash in such exuberance. And this delusion always ends the same way — with crisis.
I would also like to mention here that I have seen some disinformation being planted on Powell's statements in 2012, asserting that he was "not talking about stock markets" specifically. Obviously he is, as you will see in other parts of his statement, but to reinforce the point, here is a quote from another Fed member who spilled the beans, Richard Fisher:
"What the Fed did — and I was part of that group — is we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in 2009.
It's sort of what I call the "reverse Whimpy factor" — give me two hamburgers today for one tomorrow."
Fisher went on to hint at his very reserved view of the impending danger:
"I was warning my colleagues, Don't go wobbly if we have a 10 to 20 percent correction at some point... Everybody you talk to... has been warning that these markets are heavily priced." [In reference to interest rate hikes]
So, what happens when the Fed stops shorting volatility and ends the easy money being pumped into markets? Well, again, I think Powell and Fisher have just told you what will happen, but let's continue.
Powell: "My third concern — and others have touched on it as well — is the problems of exiting from a near $4 trillion balance sheet. We've got a set of principles from June 2011 and have done some work since then, but it just seems to me that we seem to be way too confident that exit can be managed smoothly. Markets can be much more dynamic than we appear to think.
When you turn and say to the market, "I've got $1.2 trillion of these things," it's not just $20 billion a month — it's the sight of the whole thing coming. And I think there is a pretty good chance that you could have quite a dynamic response in the market."
Assessment: The Fed balance sheet is being reduced NOW, and Powell as chairman will only continue the process if not expedite it. Some people may argue that Powell is displaying an attitude that would suggest he is not on board with tightening policies. I disagree. I believe Powell will make the argument that the band-aid must be ripped off and that stock markets need some "tough love".
In fact, Fed members including Yellen and former member Alan Greenspan (is there such a thing as a "former" member of the Fed?) have already been fielding the notion that stock markets are suffering from "irrational exuberance" and that something must be done to "temper inflation."
Powell is also acknowledging the mass-psychological aspect of investors, now trained like Pavlovian dogs to salivate over stock tickers instead of thinking critically on the implications of equities that "can't lose". When they finally begin to realize that equities can indeed lose, and that the Fed is going to let them lose, what will the result be, I wonder?
Powell: "I think we are actually at a point of encouraging risk-taking, and that should give us pause. Investors really do understand now that we will be there to prevent serious losses. It is not that it is easy for them to make money but that they have every incentive to take more risk, and they are doing so. Meanwhile, we look like we are blowing a fixed-income duration bubble right across the credit spectrum that will result in big losses when rates come up down the road. You can almost say that that is our strategy."
Assessment: Wow! And there you have it. The new Fed chair's own prognostications. He even used the dreaded "B" word — bubble. Yes, as I have been arguing for quite some time, the Fed will continue to raise rates and cut off the low cost money supply to banks and corporations that has helped boost stock markets as well as numerous other asset classes. And now we discover after six years a Fed official, soon to be the Fed chairman, telling you EXACTLY what is about to happen within American markets, reinforcing my long held position.
Powell even mentions that "this is their strategy." Now, that could be interpreted a few ways, but I continue to hold that the Fed plans to deliberately crash markets and that this will be a controlled demolition of the U.S. economy.
Trump may actually clash with Powell over these measures in the near future, considering Trump has thoroughly taken credit for the insane stock market rally that has dominated since his election. But, this will only add to the fake drama. Imagine, the very man Trump "picked" as the new head of the Federal Reserve undermining the market bubble which Trump boasts about on his Twitter account. The Kabuki theater will be phenomenal.
All the while, the true culprits behind the bubble and the crash, the international financiers and banks, will escape almost all scrutiny as the public mindlessly follows the political soap opera played out in the mainstream media.
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written by stevenguinness , January 10, 2018
I probably shouldn't have been taken aback reading Powell's comments, but seeing it in black and white and expressed so openly is staggering. Great analysis Brandon.
You'd have to imagine that the next U.S. rate hike will be in March. Incidentally, I've noticed a trend of both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England announcing changes to interest rates when a press conference takes place. The BOE's hike back in November coincided with the latest inflation report, and allowed Mark Carney the platform to explain the rise and keep markets on side. Every Fed rate hike since December 2015 has happened at the same time Janet Yellen went before the cameras to deliver the latest 'Summary of Economic Projections'.
Even the Fed's September meeting, where rates were kept on hold, was used to officially announce the balance sheet reduction plan. Again through a press conference.
The March Fed decision will give Powell the opportunity to address the media, as will the BOE's February meeting.
This doesn't feel like a coincidence. It seems to me that the conferences are used to maintain confidence in the central banks and convince markets that rate rises are indicative of a healthy economy. And a majority clearly believes them.
written by Brandon Smith , January 10, 2018
@Steven
Very astute observation on the press conferences coinciding with rate hikes.
Yes, things will become interesting when the Fed has to acknowledge the steadily falling dollar (and the drastic yield spread) despite their rate hikes and their balance sheet reduction initiative. I think they will use this as an excuse to raise rates faster than markets expect. Fed officials have been hinting the past year that "irrational exuberance" in markets needs to be tempered. In fact, Powell seems to be tailor made for pulling the plug on the stimulus extravaganza, just as Bernanke was tailor made for launching it.
written by Chaim , January 10, 2018
Thanks for sifting through these transcripts and finding the most useful stuff.
I have been holding my breath since 2008 and have been gobsmacked at how far the manipulations have continued and to their degree. It is coming up on a decade of overt HFT-driven markets and a cool $4T (declared) balance sheet. This was pure piracy though. Everyone in the know already knew that 2018 was the beginning of the end for the USD as world reserve so they rode this mess for all it was worth while many of us were just trying to decipher what was going on and how it was possible.
I had been predicting that Yellen was going to be the fall-guy at the Fed though, thinking that the chauvinist old-school would rather discredit a female. But, with Trump was in office as a 'patsy in waiting'; using/blaming HIS Fed nominee (and arguably one with a "big mouth") would heap further anger on the Populist/Liberty movement(s) and Conservative (sic) values/policies. Which is the obvious aim of all this globalist lunacy in the first place.
written by observer , January 10, 2018
For those who were fooled into thinking anything would change.
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2017/01/heres-how-goldman-sachs-became-the-overlord-of-the-trump-administration/
written by Alohajim , January 10, 2018
"All the while, the true culprits behind the bubble and the crash, the international financiers and banks, will escape almost all scrutiny as the public mindlessly follows the political soap opera played out in the mainstream media."
Thanks for keeping the eye on the prize. Too many well meaning, liberty minded people are distracted by a plethora of ongoing criminality - pedogate, Clinton's, endemic corruption, murder, legally sanctioned and enforced theft, etc. etc. etc. All distractions intentionally drawing attention away from the single most critical issue for humanity : the massive worldwide con of bankers creating money from nothing.
It won't matter if every pedophile and deep state criminal is put away if bankers retain their sole 'right' of issuing currency.
Thank the banking families who have established a most incredibly integrated, long running, matrix (academia, media, governments, corporations, institutions and entire industries), for most human misery and suffering, poverty, and the generational dumbing down, distracting, dividing, and making as many human beings helpless and dependent on governments as possible.
written by Soldier , January 10, 2018
On a serious note how bad do you things will get say in 6 months? If our way of life crashes enough then the power grid collapses, etc and so too does some of their control.
written by Guest , January 10, 2018
Brandon- your perspicacity is only exceeded by your eloquence, a very well researched and illuminating article.
All this makes one wonder as to timing and what the tipping point will be that turns unrestrained and delirious optimism to code black panic in the markets. How will soaring treasury yields be explained away as the Fed continues to stomp on the destruct button?
Poor President Trump- he has played right into the globalist's hands and couldn't have positioned himself better as the perfect patsy.
God have mercy on us all.
written by Renewed , January 10, 2018
Yes Brandon, the pieces seem to be all coming together. As much of a disaster as the collapse will be, it will almost be a relief to finally get the end game going. Seems like I've been waiting a long time. We shall see.
written by Special_Brew , January 11, 2018
H Brandon,
I agree with your analysis & also Steven's subsequent comment. As you stated previously the collapse may/will be accompanied by war to serve as a distraction. This is off topic from the article but I saw a story in December that I wouldn't mind your opinion on. It's about the photo released by the pope with very little context given. (Tried entering link here but spam filter won't let me, it's the photo of the Japanese boy carrying his dead brother on his back)
I personally see this as him giving his approval to war on the Korean Peninsula but I can't figure out if he's saying go ahead and use nukes or not to. Given the scant text he gave with it I'm assuming he's saying "there will be war in Korea and that this Will be the fruits of it. Go ahead.". Not sure if you have any thoughts on it. Also I'm basing this on the premise that the Vatican controls most western intelligence agencies & governments by extension.
written by Tim Brandyberry , January 11, 2018
Excellent analysis, Brandon. Thank you. @Distraction: no, the Vatican (Catholic Church) does not control western intel and governments. But my question: not wanting to make it too much about the Jews, but I am figuring that Powell is not Jewish, unlike all the previous Fed Chairs since way back. Could this be, if true, because the powers that be want to be able to accomplish the crashing of the system without a name like "Yellen" or Greenspan" attached to it. What do you think?
written by John2 , January 11, 2018
Jerome Powell is a member of the Rockefeller CFR, along with Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer, Alan Greenspan, and Paul Volcker.
Citigroup, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are CFR corporate sponsors, and several of their execs are also CFR members (Blankfein, Dimon, Rubin, Summers, etc).
See lists in the CFR annual report.
written by Jericho , January 11, 2018
Like his fellow Fed governor Daniel Tarullo with whom he oversaw almost every Fed committee, Jerome Powell is Jesuit trained. (Trump and Pence are also Jesuit trained.) Unlike the trivial hofjuden who preceded him Powell is a serious guy who will implement serious changes. The big surprise will be the dollar continuing to fall in the face of interest rates rising. Looks like PMs have bottomed as we head into another fear cycle.
written by Occams , January 11, 2018
"Fed chairmen like Janet Yellen are mere mascots implementing policy initiatives as ordered."
Puppets to the Rothschilds, one and all.
~ Occams
written by Brandon Smith , January 11, 2018
@Occams
Not to the Rothschilds, but to the globalists. The Rothschilds are just one factor of many.
written by Get Ready , January 12, 2018
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the dollar's demise will be accompanied by rising interest rates and rising gold prices. And the stock market will continue to soar for another year or so,not because of insane Fed liquidity injections but to keep up with the obscene inflation the Fed will have unleashed--i.e. no real gains. It no longer matter swho runs the Fed or what they do. The die is cast and nobody will be able to stop what's coming. There are bigger cyclical systemic influences at play that will overwhelm the Fed. The reset will come. Nobody can stop it.
written by Get Ready , January 12, 2018
Case in point? A story from today illustrating how the Fed has lost its influence:
Markets Still Blow Off the Fed, Dudley Gets Nervous, Fires Warning Shot
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/01/12/markets-still-blow-off-the-fed-dudley-gets-nervous-fires-warning-shot/
written by Brandon Smith , January 12, 2018
@Get Ready
The fed has not "lost it's influence"; as Powell's comments illustrate, the fed has been aware all along of what would happen once they hiked interest rates. A crash is all part of the plan. Also, The stock market is not guaranteed to last another year. In fact, look at the reaction at the mere rumor of China stopping treasury purchases - an immediate plunge in futures. The fate of US debt and the dollar is inexorably tied to stocks now. Substantial threats to either one will result in immediate market collapse.
We have already witnessed the inflationary phase of stock markets, and it will soon be coming to an end.
written by li , January 12, 2018
Swiss rule the world... second and third templar sons of the hapsburg empire... they and the north east eu royals are playing a ruthless game of thrones... bend the knee
written by Johnny Law , January 12, 2018
I wonder if our assets will be seized when the big crash comes along?
written by Lord Odin , January 12, 2018
"mascot"...from the french mascotte, from provencal mascotto, meaning "witch"
written by Ambrose Bierce , January 12, 2018
Is this true, the Fed would sit on this for five years? Explosive, I still don't believe this, is this the Onion?
written by Brandon Smith , January 12, 2018
@Ambrose
Nope. Read the transcripts for yourself. Anyone who has studied the fed should not be surprised though that they hide information and lie to the public...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20121024meeting.pdf
written by Anon55 , January 12, 2018
Hey, thanks for the informative article. Now when you say "everything bubble" do you mean everything in the US or worldwide? and if as in worldwide, do you believe all the world's financial markets will collapse at the same time or is it going to gradually go from the US to the rest?
written by Brandon Smith , January 12, 2018
@Anon
I'm not the one who coined the phrase "everything bubble", but it essentially refers to a bubble in multiple assets across a wide spectrum - not literally a bubble in every asset in the world.
For example, in the US we have massive bubbles in stocks, bonds, the dollar, consumer spending (fueled by a bubble in consumer credit), the housing market (again), etc. ALL of these bubbles are tied directly or indirectly to Federal Reserve stimulus and low interest rates. As Powell openly admits in his statements, take that support from the Fed away, and suddenly you have a considerable negative event on your hands.
There are also similar bubbles in multiple other nations, some of those are tied to Fed stimulus, some of them are not. Some nations and economies would survive a major reversal, some of them will not. I believe China and Russia, for example, are slated to survive while the US is slated for financial demolition.
written by Donald Canaday , January 12, 2018
Federal Reserve is no more federal than Federal express. They are private Bank that issue money for America. A book that explains it in detail is”the creature from Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin, 5th edition.softcover,copyrights 2010 September iSBN; 978-0-912986-45-6. American Media,p.o. box 4646,Westlake Village, California 91359”. Mr. Griffin has appeared Alex Jones, infowars. The charter for Federal ReserveBank, which are own stock holders and was supposed to be 100 years. In 2013 US Congress would need to continue this Charter. US Constitution give Congress to make money for Americans economy.
written by E-Waves , January 13, 2018
I'd like to point out that yields were already rising when the FED decided to increase its rates, and yields were already falling when the FED lowered its rates. This has occurred more than 95% of the time. But wait! There's more! The same relation between yields in other countries and their central banks has been similar to that in the US. This strong objective evidence leads one to believe markets control interest rates, not central banks. There is no Wizard of OZ.
written by Brandon Smith , January 13, 2018
@E-Waves
Nope, simply not true. Yields on 10-year bonds for example were actually holding quite steady and were even rising slightly just before the financial crisis in 2008 when the Fed cut rates to near zero.
10 year yields have PLUNGED even further despite the Fed recently hiking interest rates. The FED always determines interest rates. Period. There is no free market influence anymore.
I don't know what data you are looking at, or your sources, but you are either confused about how to read treasury charts, or you are deliberately misrepresenting the information. Also, I think I should point out that Elliot Wave theory is nonsense.
written by Kevin. , January 14, 2018
Anyone following markets and knowing about the long term goal of globalists to form one world government and a single currency via a financial reset, would know it is coming, the problem is knowing exactly when.
This is the problem I have, like almost everyone else, I have been absolutely gobsmacked at how long and how far the Fed have extended this stockmarket and bond market bubble.
The question I have for you Brandon is this, why would they goose the markets for almost ten years and then do it, why go to all the trouble of rigging markets and doing QE 1,2,3, ZIRP and operation twist to then just pull the rug out now?
Why didn't they do it any time in the last nine years?
And if this isn't the time, perhaps the parabolic rise in the stockmarket is now merely discounting higher inflation down the road from the re-patriation of hundreds of billlions of overseas $ and higher corporate profits as a result of the tax reform, a weaker dollar and the Fed being behind the curve not wanting to kill off the "recovery" by raising rates too fast ?
written by Brandon Smith , January 14, 2018
@Kevin
Well, you are asking me a hypothetical question, so I can give my theory, but lets be clear that I will NOT be arguing over hypotheticals here. It is a complete waste of time. If you want to know the reason why the banking elites waited so long, you'll have to tie one of them to a chair and ask them.
As far as the stock market rise is concerned, the stock market has been rising rather steadily for the past few years, and the FED has stepped in every time it began to reverse to its natural crash course. People have such short attention spans they think everything is due to the Trump tax cuts, when the reality is setup for this was taking place LONG before Trump came around.
On top of that, I have direct quotes from Fed officials ADMITTING that they have been propping up markets. So, I don't know what more truth I can beat you over the head with to convince you of this reality.
Also, as noted, I believe the Fed will raise rates much faster starting in 2018 in response to a plunging dollar and flailing interest in US debt. We shall see in due course.
In terms of the "long wait", I would remind people that it took almost nine years before the mainstream truly acknowledged the Great Depression as a depression. All the while you had the same type of lying "professionals" telling everyone that recovery was right around the corner. Some of the most impressive stock market rebounds also occurred during the Great Depression.
What you see as a "long wait", economic history sees as a blink of an eye. Beyond that, the stock market is MEANINGLESS as an economic indicator. It is the most useless trailing after-the-fact indicator of all time. The only reason I discuss the stock market at all is because unfortunately the majority of people only look at stocks when gauging economic health. And I am forced to remind them often that stocks are not what they appear to be, nor are they as invincible as they appear to be right now.
Look at almost all the fundamental indicators of economic health and you will find the US economy in a state of constant hibernation; a coma if you will. We are in the middle of a collapse NOW. It is not on the way, it is here right in front of your face.
Why would the elites prop up stock markets in particular, and why all the stimulus? Because if they had allowed the system to complete the crash back in 2008, it would have been survivable, and the US dollar would have remained a functioning mechanism. Their goal is to destroy the dollar first and foremost as the world reserve currency and replace it with a one world currency system. They have to create the conditions by which the public will BEG for this solution.
What most people simply do not get is that stimulus measures were not a stop gap, they are a weapon. A time bomb designed to explode when the bankers are ready to replace the dollar. By all indications, the dollar will be replaced by a cryptocurrency system; the banks have been building a vast framework for cryptocurrencies and pushing them in the mainstream.
The Economist (a globalist run magazine) "predicted" that we would see the beginnings of a world currency in 2018. It looks like the elites are sticking to that schedule so far.
written by Kevin. , January 14, 2018
Thanks for the detailed reply, but I'm still not convinced they will do the reset this year, I have also seen the PPT dive in at any sign of market weakness, and I still think they will protect the stockmarket at all costs, this is now the self fulfilling belief that is driving markets higher, the thought that the Fed has their backs(and quotes by Powell in your article now confirms it).Mom and pop are going all in and it is accelerating.
NASDAQ could hit 10,000 or even 20,000 before this bubble pops, and then the Fed will jump in with QE4 and more buying at critical supports in the market.
As regards interest rates, correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the Fed or the Treasury cap bond yields at 2.5% after WWII, so the bond bubble is safe as well?
written by Brandon Smith , January 14, 2018
@Kevin
If the Fed wanted to protect the market rally then they would not be raising interest rates, nor would they be reducing their balance sheet. No one asked them to raise rates. In fact, everyone in the world expected them to go for negative rates (except me and a couple of other analysts).
The quotes by Powell actually confirm the opposite - Powell's job will be to raise rates at breakneck speeds, eventually crush the dollar's world reserve status, and in the process crush the stock market rally.
The Fed also did not print tens of trillions of dollars during or after WWII, nor did they have debt obligations far in excess of 400%+ of GDP. And, the Dollar was not the world reserve currency then, either. Consider those factors for a moment before making such assumptions on today's economic health.
It sounds like you are desperate to believe the stock market rally will continue no matter what. You may have a bit of the bull market mania, and frankly I have no intention of "convincing" someone with a mania of anything.
Even if stock indexes doubled, it would not matter. The rest of the economy will be in ongoing collapse. And while ticker trackers like yourself hyperfocus on these meaningless numbers, you will be missing the far more important issues at hand.
written by MM , January 14, 2018
Brandon,
Been following you a long long time, thanks for the insights. I have passed your blog on to all in my inner circle.
Besides retiring to a modest rural working farm and all the standard prep, I'm debt free, stacked (about 50-50) with cash outside the system, and what I have to leave in my wife's 401k is in short term treasuries.
I' have been active as an Oath Keeper, and working on building a like minded neighbor tribe.
Any additional advice?
Thanks again for your work, really.
written by Brandon Smith , January 15, 2018
@MM
It sounds like you are way ahead of about 99% of the population. I would only add that it would be wise to put together tools or equipment for the production of some kind of necessity. Meaning, can you make a necessity, fix a necessity, or teach a necessary skill? This way you have a valuable barter option in the event of economic breakdown.
Regards,
Brandon Smith
written by stevenguinness , January 15, 2018
Quick question for you Brandon - the Fed's first rate hike since 2006 came under Obama, but the market reaction was negative and the follow up hike did not come until Trump was confirmed as the next president. I'm doubtful that the Fed made a mistake, but at the same time recognise that they are not infallible.
What do you think their motivation was for beginning monetary tightening under Obama?
written by Brandon Smith , January 16, 2018
@Steven
Well, all I can do is offer a hypothetical answer to that question, but my suspicion is that they launched the tapering of QE and the first rate hike under Obama because they KNEW that the next president was going to be a conservative (at least in rhetoric if not in practice), and that it would take a couple of years for their fiscal tightening to work its way through markets and finally disrupt them, while that president was in office.
They also had to start tightening policies under Obama so that they could say later that "Hey, we aren't political, we were tightening under Obama just like we are tightening under Trump...if you want to blame this crisis on someone, blame Trump..."
Again, just a theory. I do believe the central bankers make mistakes, but I also believe according to the evidence that they are in fact on a timeline and that they are acting according to that timeline. How strict the timeline is I don't know, but 2018 seems to be very important to them, as well as 2030.
